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  • Peace123
  • User
  • Posts: 505

Posted at 2014-02-08 15:42:16 — Link

 This is the 6th straight time I've used my squad against his, and his maneuvers don't seem to change either. He's been on it for at least a day, but this is how it always comes out. (Manuevers change every 10 hours if you've been on it for a long period of time, right???) Also, I noticed that one of his pets just has 1 defense and an elemental strike. How does it always come out with the one defense, no elemental strike? The only time i saw elemental strike coming out was when I was using my other squad, http://beastkeeper.com/profile/7955/18197/1. And this happened only once out of the (idk how many totals fights I've been against him, but a lot.) at least 12. I know by the 4-ish time, maneuvers weaken, so how does it always stay like this? I understand that he couldve of rerolled, but when I looked  at the last time he was on, it was (I think) about one hour Ago. Which wasn't even when I started attacking.

The squad I kept using was: http://beastkeeper.com/profile/7955/12869/1

and the squad I was going against was: http://beastkeeper.com/profile/7500/13865/1

I know the portal doesn't give you +- defense/attack points. So what's wrong?

it just doesn't add up, because he has the one pet with just one defense and elemental strike (that I havent seen when I use my squad 1 team,) it should be a win on my end at least 50% of the time. (And ties) :P

The problem:

The likelyhood of getting 3 defenses out of 4 with the pet that has only 1 defense, seems unlikely. Let alone not having any elemental strikes. With maneuvers changing feom being their too long and from me attacking him multiple times, also doesn't add up. I think I attacked 4 straight in the row yesterda. + 2 staright in the row yesterday, and then today 6 straight in a row.  Only one battle (which was the first battle of today 1/6) that had an elemental strike.

"Most friends come and go. Some friends leave when your life gets too tough. And others come when your life is at it's best. But it's those friends who come in the middle of your life, and stay at both your highs and lows, that are the truest of friends."

Tori River



  • beleran
  • User
  • Posts: 34

Posted at 2014-02-08 19:24:49 — Link

Actually i'm at there for 3+ days.

Roll changes once per 10 hours.

Probability that maneuver related to my elemental dragon will reroll is 1/4.

Probability that elemental attack will pop out 1/4*1/4=1/16.

This is your chance to win with HTL if you attack me right after discipline weakens. Well... it would be if you didnt have a rude mistake in your build... But to win now you'll need huge luck. Actual probability of your victory is less than 2%. I will not bring up math here as i got from other branches it isn't very popular.

A small tip.

Hover over gambling bone at the battlefield control panel and read what it does. Then think how i get rid from unwanted maneuvers

To kick someone out you have to find a counterbuild instead of making the same attacks.

But thanks, you spawned for me a few great pets with your nice attacks :)

Твари не ходят в белом


  • Angel
  • Game Developer
  • Posts: 3,051

Posted at 2014-02-08 20:08:26 — Link

Beleran is right, there are no bugs, it's just pure luck. Statistics is on beleran's side, there's a very small chance that degeneration will cause the elemental attack to change one of the defences. If we assume that he didn't make any rerolls last 20 hours, it's really 1/16. 1/4 chance for affecting the pet that has elemental attack and 1/4 that the affected pet will actually use this attack instead of other 3 maneuvers. Most likely even the highest degeneration (40 hours without rerolling) won't ruin this build. And even when this happens, beleran can try to reroll it. In case if he has Tactician in his inn, he can make 2 rerolls every 10 hours to maintain the successful defence roll without spending any energy potions (and he can spend them if has unlucky 2 rerolls to get another 2 tries).

As for the 3 defence maneuvers of 4 with a pet who has 1 defence maneuver, actually this is quite possible. Remember, you can make rerolls each turn, so you need to roll 3 successes of 8 tries with 1/4 chance for each try (except the 1/4 of tries when you has elemental attack rolled  and you can't make a reroll because of this). As a rough estimation, it's about 20% chance to get at least 3 defenses in such conditions.

You need a sample around 1000 rolls to see the distribution that will be close to the theoretical probabilities. Statistics is not visible on such small samples as dozen or two. A squad has a chance to roll 4 waits in a row - the probability of this is 1/256, but in fact every player who plays on the tactics map have seen such unlucky rolls. "Unlikely" doesn't mean "impossible", and even doesn't mean "rare". The chance of the same event always stays the same, and previous events do not affect it. You can face the same event that has 1/500 probability two times in a row, and somebody else won't face it a single time after 5000 encounters.



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